Association of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole with the Incidence of Respiratory Infectious Diseases in Chiang Mai
Keywords:
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Respiratory Infectious Diseases, Chiang MaiAbstract
Respiratory infectious diseases are a major and steadily increasing public health concern in Chiang Mai. However, studies on the association with global climatic phenomena, such as ENSO and IOD, in this area are limited and have only focused on local climate indicators. This study aims to investigate the trends and associations of ENSO and IOD with the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases in Chiang Mai.
An Ecological Time-series Study design was employed to analyze a 10-year period of retrospective monthly data (2014–2023), investigating the association between ENSO/IOD indicators (SOI, ONI, MEI.v2, and DMI) sourced from NOAA and the number of reported cases from the surveillance system (R506). The analysis utilized Negative Binomial Regression Models with lag times of 0–12 months to assess the magnitude and direction of temporal associations without adjusting for other variables.
The negative binomial regression analysis revealed that the ENSO indicators (SOI, ONI, and MEI.v2) and the IOD indicator (DMI) were significantly associated with the number of cases. At a 12-month lag, a one-unit decrease in the ENSO (ONI) and IOD (DMI) indices was associated with a significant increase in infection risk of 32.81% (RR=0.7530, 95%CI=0.6699-0.8463) and 44.57% (RR=0.6917, 95%CI=0.5245-0.9122), respectively.
In conclusion, ENSO and IOD indicators can be effectively applied to prepare disease control measures and public health resources up to one year in advance. However, as these studies represent population-level data, further analyses integrating pathogen biology, population immunity, and social behaviors are recommended to enhance the accuracy of an Early Warning System to better prepare for future climate variability.
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