Impact Analysis of Tobacco Plain Packaging Regulations in Thailand: Economic Impact

Abstract

Objective: To forecast potential economic impact if the Tobacco Plain Packaging regulations, a new measure for Thailand to curb the rise of new smokers, were implemented. Methods: This descriptive research collected data using focus group discussion among adults age between 18-21 years. Secondary data were used to estimate the economic impact of such policy. Results: The subjects anticipated that tobacco plain packaging could lower cigarette consumption among non-smokers and new smokers, not for current smokers. They believed that the effect will be transient. In the government perspective, the policy will save the budget on treatment of diseases caused by smoking among new smokers in the year A.D. 2019 and 2020 at  2,023,444,836 Baht and 1,950,900,971 Baht, respectively, while the national income from tobacco tax in the year A.D. 2019 and 2020 will decrease 224,212,605 Baht and 270,865,453 Baht, respectively. Overall, it will save the budget for Thailand by 1,799,232,231 and 1,680,035,517 Baht in the year A.D. 2019 and 2020, respectively. In individual perspective, overall cost savings from not smoking in the year A.D. 2019 and 2020 were at 178,162,608 Baht and 171,926,470 Baht, respectively. Conclusions: Even though the Tobacco Plain Packaging regulations could diminish smoking only on non-smokers and new smokers, it could save the overall national budget more than 1,700 million Baht annually. This is a strong evidence to support government in implementing these regulations in Thailand.