The Study of Factors Affecting to Container Consumption in the Situation of Covid-19 and Comparison Forecasting Models with Appropriate Techniques
Keywords:
forecast, container, Covid-19 situationAbstract
This research aimed to analyze the economic factors affecting the consumption of containers in Thailand during the COVID-19 situation and the best time series forecasting techniques for quantifying the containers. The study factors influencing container consumption independent variables used in the study were the value of Thai imports and exports, exchange rate policy, interest rate, crude oil price, business sentiment index, inflation, and Thailand’s GDP. A time series of secondary data was compiled from January 2019 to December 2020 and examined using multiple regression analysis. Creating forecasting equations and then comparing them with time series forecasting techniques such as the moving average method, weighted moving average method, exponential smoothing method, and Excel solver help to determine the optimal α-value. The results of the study show that the factors affecting the consumption of containers in the situation of COVID-19 include the value of Thai imports and exports and the gross domestic product of Thailand. It was found that the 5-month weighted moving average method has the lowest error of 5.362%.
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