Forecasting on Demand of Health Care Workforces in Tumbon Health Promotion Hospitals in the Context of Transfer to Provincial Administrative Organizations
Keywords:
Forecasts, Tumbon Health Promotion Hospital, Transferred to Provincial Administrative OrganizationsAbstract
The purpose of this retrospective study was to forecast demand trends and compare the shortage of healthcare personnel with the revenue of Provincial Administrative Organizations (PAOs) at the Tambon Health Promoting Hospitals (THPHs) level, which has been transferred to PAOs in the fiscal year 2023. The study used data from the Human Resource Office of the Permanent Secretary System (HROPS), Ministry of Public Health, as of October 2, 2023. Data collection was conducted using data recording forms, and data were analyzed and presented using descriptive statistics, including frequency and percentage. The research results were as follows.
1. A total of 3,263 THPHs have transferred their duties, with 12,295 personnel opting to transfer, accounting for 77.62% of healthcare workforce at THPH before transferred.
2. In terms of healthcare workforce trends over the next 20 years, it was found that if 600 nursing professionals are added each year, the required workforce framework prior to transfer will be achieved by 2031, with full alignment with the structural framework by 2043. For public health professionals, an additional 500 individuals per year will meet the framework prior to transfer by 2034 and the structural framework by 2043. For public health dentistry professionals, an addition of 120 per year will meet the framework by 2030 and the structural framework by 2043. For traditional medicine professionals, an addition of 120 per year will meet the framework prior to transfer by 2028.
3. A comparison of workforce shortages with PAO revenue revealed five provinces with significant personnel shortages and low PAO income.
Forecasting workforce trends can serve as a guideline for human resource planning to enable primary health service provision in line with the service standards at SHPHs transferred to PAOs.
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