การพยากรณ์อากาศยานอุบัติเหตุจากการวิเคราะห์และจำแนกปัจจัยมนุษย์ด้วยเนอีฟเบย์
คำสำคัญ:
พยากรณ์, อากาศยาน, อุบัติเหตุ, ปัจจัยมนุษย์, เนอีฟเบย์บทคัดย่อ
การวิจัยครั้งนี้ มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อ (1) เพื่อวิเคราะห์สาเหตุการเกิดอากาศยานอุบัติเหตุ และ (2) เพื่อวัดประสิทธิภาพการพยากรณ์อากาศยานอุบัติเหตุ ใช้การสุ่มตัวอย่างแบบไม่อาศัยความน่าจะเป็น ด้วยวิธีเฉพาะเจาะจงจากอากาศยานพาณิชย์แอร์บัส รุ่น A320-A321 ที่มีรายงานเกิดอุบัติเหตุช่วงการลงจอดและมีรายงานการสอบสวนอุบัติเหตุเสร็จสมบูรณ์ ด้วยปัจจัย เช่น เวลา สภาพอากาศ จำนวนทางวิ่ง HFACS เป็นต้น ตั้งแต่ปี ค.ศ.2013-2023 ที่ จำนวน 67 ชุด แบ่งเป็น 2 ชุด คือ ชุดฝึกสอน จำนวน 54 ชุด และชุดทดสอบ จำนวน 13 ชุด เครื่องมือในการวิเคราะห์ข้อมูล คือ ค่าความถี่ ร้อยละ และเนอีฟเบย์ ผลการวิจัยพบว่า (1) สาเหตุการเกิดอากาศยานอุบัติเหตุ คือ ข้อจำกัดทางกายภาพ และข้อผิดพลาดของมนุษย์ เป็นต้น และ (2) ประสิทธิภาพการพยากรณ์อากาศยานอุบัติเหตุ ได้เท่ากับ 0.69
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