Analysis of Comparing Forecasting Methods for Production Planning: Case Study of Beef Companies, Nakhon Phanom Province

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รัชฎา แต่งภูเขียว
ณัฐนันท์ อิสสระพงศ์

Abstract

The objective of this research was to compare and select the best forecasting time series method for production of beef companies in Nakhon Phanom Province. The five comparison forecasting methods include: (1) Moving average method (2) Simple exponential smoothing method (3) Holt’s Linear Method (4) Winters’ method for multiplicative effects (5)trend analysis method. A forecast model (training data), using the company's production data from 2015 to 2016, was then compared with the forecast values obtained from the model and the actual values of 2017. However, the appropriate forecasting methods from average absolute error (MAD), mean square error (Mean Square Error, MSE) and the lowest percentage of absolute error (MAPE) were considered. The results showed that linear trend method suitable for forecasting for cattle production planning in Nakhon Phanom Province, which provides MSD = 166.849 MAD = 10.773 and MAPE = 6.76, had the lowest values compared to other forecasting methods. When applying linear trend methods, which are  the most accurate and suitable methods for planning and for the forecasting of the production of fattening beef in Nakhon Phanom province and  for predicting the demand in 2017, it was found that the demand for fattening beef production will increase due to an increase in the number of  customers and sales promotion activities

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บทความวิจัย