FORECASTING THE RATE OF ELDERLY WITH STRESS PROBLEMS IN LOPBURI PROVINCE
Keywords:
forecasting, the elderly, stress problemsAbstract
Objectives: To develop a time series model to predict the rate of elderly with stress problems in Lopburi Province, fiscal year 2024.
Material and Methods: Statistical time series forecasting with secondary data collected from standard reports to promote and prevent mental health problems stress screening (ST-5) among elderly people aged 60 years and over of the Ministry of Public Health, fiscal year 2018 to 2024 (processed on April 20, 2024) using polynomial regression and Gray System Theory. Forecast accuracy is measured by the coefficient of determination and the mean absolute percentage error.
Results: The model based on a polynomial regression equation gave a forecast value for fiscal year 2024 of 341 per 10,000 screened elderly people, an increase of three times from fiscal year 2023. When compared to the actual value for fiscal year 2024 (processed on April 20, 2024), the rate of elderly people having stress problems was 262, an increase of 30.3 percent. The predicted value using the polynomial regression equation had a correlation with the actual value of 0.97, with a coefficient of determination of 94.11 percent, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 12.53, within the criteria that the model had good prediction accuracy. While the GM (1,1) and GM (1,1) EPC models had the very low correlations between the predicted values and the actual values, and the MAPEs were higher than the model based on polynomial regression equations.
Conclusion: Data for fiscal years 2018 to 2024 fluctuated from an initial drop in half, then an increase, then a two-year decline, then an increase more than tripling in fiscal year 2024. When deciding on a forecasting model based on the most consistent with the original data and the least different from the original data, a polynomial regression model may no longer be a suitable choice. Therefore, qualitative information must be used, including external factors and the implementation of various projects by agencies related to factors that contribute to stress reduction among the elderly.
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