气象因素与传染病的关系 黎府蘑菇中毒事件
关键词:
ความเชื่อมโยง, ปัจจัยอุตุนิยมวิทยา, โรคระบาด, พิษจากเห็ด, จังหวัดเลย摘要
本研究旨在分析黎府气象因素与传染病和蘑菇中毒患者数量的关系和风险率。它是针对月度时间序列数据的相关性研究。黎府2021年至2024年8月的省级数据包括从东北北部气象中心收集的气象因素，以及从疾病控制部流行病局506疾病监测报告系统收集的传染病和蘑菇中毒患者人数。使用皮尔逊相关性和广义线性模型对数据进行分析。结果表明，手足口病、钩端螺旋体病、蘑菇中毒月发病数的一般线性模型为广义泊松回归模型（Quasi-Poisson）、负二项式回归模型、广义泊松回归模型，分别;以日平均湿度为自变量，Pearson相关系数在显着性0.05水平上具有统计显着性，分别为0.343、0.276和0.507，日平均相对湿度增加1%时的风险率为1.16、1.04 、 和 1.30，分别。早期相对湿度预报数据可以作为估计传染病和蘑菇中毒病例数的指南，以进行适当的公共卫生干预。##plugins.generic.usageStats.downloads##
参考
Ministry of Public Health, Bureau of Epidemiology. National Disease Surveillance (Report 506), Number of cases and deaths by month and province [internet]. 2024 [cited 2024 Sep 25]. Available from: http://doe.moph.go.th/surdata/index.php (in Thai)
Coates SJ, Davis MDP, Andersen LK. Temperature and humidity affect the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease: a systematic review of the literature - a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee. Int J Dermatol. 2019;58(4):388-99. doi: 10.1111/ijd.14188.
Wongbutdee J, Saengnill W, Jittimanee J, Panomket P, Saenwang P. The association between the mapping distribution of melioidosis incidences and meteorological factors in an endemic area: Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand (2009–2018). CMU J. Nat. Sci. 2021;20(4): e2021083. (in Thai)
Chadsuthi S, Chalvet-Monfray K, Wiratsudakul A. Modchang C. The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand. Sci Rep [internet]. 2021 [cited in 2024 Sep 25]; 11, 1486. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-79546-x
Xiong S, Wu A, Weng L, Zhang L, Muli W, Li H, et al. Study on the correlation between the number of mushroom poisoning cases and meteorological factors based on the generalized additive model in Guizhou Province, 2023. BMC Public Health Rep [internet]. 2024 [cited in 2024 Sep 25]; 24:2628. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-20050-6
Somrithipol S, Pinruan U, Sommai S, Khamsuntorn P, Luangsa-Ard JJ. Mushroom poisoning in Thailand between 2003 and 2017. Mycoscience. 2022;63(6):267–73. doi: 10.47371/mycosci.2022.08.003
Department of Provincial Administration, The Bureau of Registration Administration, . Monthly Population Registration Statistics [internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Mar 18]. Available from: https://stat.bora.dopa.go.th/stat/statnew/statMONTH/statmonth/#/displayData (in Thai)
Upper Northeastern Meteorological Center. Open Government Data, Monthly meteorological data statistics of Upper Northeastern Meteorological Center (Khon Kaen) Station 2021 - 2024 [internet]. 2024 [cited 2024 Sep 2]. Available from: http://www.khonkaen.tmd.go.th/opendata/-index.html#section2 (in Thai)
Statistics Solutions. Pearson’s correlation coefficient: a comprehensive overview [internet]. 2022 [cited 2024 Sep 2]. Available from: https://www.statisticssolutions.com/freeresources/-directory-of-statistical-analyses/pearsons-correlation-coefficient/
Walker JA. Statistics for the experimental biologist a guide to best (and worst) practices. chapter 20 Generalized Linear Models I: count data [internet]. 2024 [cited 2024 Sep 28]. Available from: https://www.middleprofessor.com/files/appliedbiostatistics_bookdown/book/-generalizedlinear-models-i-count-data.html
Sarakarn P, Jumparway D. Coverage and flexibility: issues should be considered for analyzing by Generalized Linear Model in health science research. Thai Health Sci J Community Public Health. 2020;3(2):144-58. (in Thai)
Gallucci M. GLMJ General Analyses for the Linear Model in Jamovi [internet]. 2024 [cited 2024 Sep 28]. Available from: https://gamlj.github.io/#general-analyses-for-the-linear-model-injamovi
Buchan IE. Poisson regression [internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Mar 18]. Available form: https://www.statsdirect.com/help/regression_and_correlation/poisson.htm
PennState Eberly Colledge of Sceince. 2024 STAT 504 Analysis of Discrete Data 6.1 - introduction to GLMs [internet]. 2021 [cited 2024 Sep 28]. Available from: https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat504/lesson/6/6.1
Gallucci M. GAMLj: General analyses for linear models [internet]. 2019 [cited 2024 Sep 20]. Available from: https://gamlj.github.io/
R Core Team. R: a Language and environment for statistical computing (Version 4.1) [internet]. 2021 [cited 2024 Sep 20]. Available from: https://cran.r-project.org
The jamovi project. Jamovi. (version 2.3) [internet]. 2022 [cited 2024 Sep 20]. Available from: https://www.jamovi.org.
Mahidol University, Center of Ethical Reinforcement for Research. Announcement of Mahidol University on guidelines for projects that do not qualify as human research [internet]. 2022 [cited 2024 Sep 20]. Available from: https://sp.mahidol.ac.th/th/LAW/policy/2565-MU-Non-Human.pdf (in Thai)
Mahidol University, Center of Ethical Reinforcement for Research. 2022. Self-assessment form whether an activity is human subject research which requires ethical approval [internet]. 2022 [cited 2024 Sep 20]. Available from: https://sp.mahidol.ac.th/th/ethicshuman/forms/checklist/-2022-Human%20Research%20-Checklist-researcher.pdf (in Thai)
Laing A, Evans J-L. Introduction to tropical meteorology a comprehensive online & print textbook. [internet]. 2011 [cited 2024 Sep 20]. Available from: https://www.chanthaburi.buu.ac.th/~wirote/met/ tropical/textbook_2nd_ed ition/index.htm
Yang F, Ma Y, Liu F, Zhao X, Fan C, Hu Y, et al. Short-term effects of rainfall on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease and related spatial heterogeneity: evidence from 143 cities in mainland China. BMC Public Health [internet] 2020 [cited 2024 Sep 25] 20: 1528. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09633-1
##submission.downloads##
已出版
##submission.howToCite##
期
栏目
##submission.license##
##submission.copyrightStatement##
##submission.license.cc.by-nc-nd4.footer##บทความที่ได้รับการตีพิมพ์เป็นลิขสิทธิ์ของวารสารวิทยาศาสตร์สุขภาพและสุขภาวะ
ข้อความที่ปรากฏในบทความแต่ละเรื่องในวารสารวิชาการเล่มนี้เป็นความคิดเห็นส่วนตัวของผู้เขียนแต่ละท่านไม่เกี่ยวข้องกับมหาวิทยาลัยหัวเฉียวเฉลิมพระเกียรติ และคณาจารย์ท่านอื่นๆในมหาวิทยาลัยฯ แต่อย่างใด ความรับผิดชอบองค์ประกอบทั้งหมดของบทความแต่ละเรื่องเป็นของผู้เขียนแต่ละท่าน หากมีความผิดพลาดใดๆ ผู้เขียนแต่ละท่านจะรับผิดชอบบทความของตนเองแต่ผู้เดียว
