Projection of HIV/AIDS Patients at Bamrasnaradura Infectious Diseases Institute, 2011-2013

Abstract

          The retrospective study was examined trend and prediction both numbers and episodes of HIV/AIDS patients at Bamrasnaradura Infectious Diseases Institute. Data were collected in and out patients per months from annual reports of Bamrasnaradura Infectious Diseases Institute Bamrasnaradura Infectious Diseases Institute in 2002-2009. In and out HIV/AIDS patients were predicted the numbers and visits of patients for three years, using regression and curve estimation technique. Results found that each increase of a year corresponds to increase of 1,948 out-patients. Each increase of a year corresponds to decrease of 535 in-patients. Each increase of a month corresponds to increase of 95 out-patients. Each increase of a month corresponds to decrease of 5 in-patients. The results demonstrated that Bamrasnaradura Infectious Diseases Institute should be strategic plan for health workers, equipments preparing for in and out patients in the future.