Trends and Projections of Aortic Aneurysm in Thailand (1990–2035): Risk Factors and Public Health Implication
Keywords:
Trend and projection, Aortic aneurysm, Risk factor, GBD analysisAbstract
Aortic aneurysm (AA) remains highly lethal in older adults; contemporary national evidence from Thailand is scarce. This study aimed to analyze trends in AA-related mortality and disease burden in Thailand, compare these trends with Southeast Asia and global patterns, and project future mortality. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we quantified AA all-age deaths, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) for Thailand, Southeast Asia, and the world (1990–2021), with 95% UI. Risk-attributable burden (smoking, high systolic blood pressure, high BMI, dietary sodium, lead) was summarized. Mortality to 2035 was projected using a Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model. From 1990 to 2021, deaths increased by 290.47% (from 546 to 2,134); ASMR was essentially stable (-0.50%), and ASDR rose by 8.92%. Men had higher ASMR and ASDR than women, especially at ages ≥75 years. Smoking and high systolic blood pressure were the leading attributable risks. BAPC projections indicate deaths increasing from 1,465.8 (95% CI 1,339.6–1,592.0) in 2023 to 1,567.6 (95% CI 1,268.8–1,866.4) by 2035. All-age deaths and ASDR are increasing in Thailand while ASMR remains stable, indicating demographic aging and ongoing exposure to AA risk factors. Therefore, the implementation of public health measures to control smoking and manage blood pressure are urgently needed to reduce the burden of disease in the future.
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