预测政府医疗机构门诊患者提供中医服务的次数
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摘要
自 2009 年开始在泰国医疗保健系统中提供中医诊疗服务，卫生部自 2013 年起开始编制中医诊疗统计数据。预测服务使用情况在规划中具有重要作用。时间序列预测是一门公认的艺术和科学。由于数据量不超过 10 年，Grey 系统理论预测可以创建少量的预测模型。利用 2019 财年至 2023 财年为卫生部门诊患者提供中医服务的次数数据，预测 2024 财年的服务次数，分为季度、4 季度和整体，结果显示，GM 使用周期性修正（EPC）扩展的模型（1,1）在 2019 年至 2023 年期间的平均预测误差总体和季度 3 精准度较高。良好的预测是季度 1 和季度 2，并且有足够的理由使用该预测第 4 季度。
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