Predicting the number of times providing traditional Chinese medicine services to outpatients of government public health care facilities
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Abstract
Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) examinations and treatment services have been provided in the Thai health service system since 2009. The Ministry of Public Health has prepared statistics on Chinese medicine diagnoses since fiscal year 2013. Predicting the TCM service plays an important role in planning TCM services. Grey Systems Theory (GST) prediction can create a prediction model with a small amount of data. Using data on the number of times provided traditional Chinese medicine services to outpatients from fiscal years 2019 to 2023, predict the number of times provided services in fiscal year 2024, classified into four quarterly and overall. The results show that the GM (1,1) expanded with periodic correction (EPC) model has the minimum average prediction error from 2019 to 2023. It has high accuracy overall and in the 3rd quarter. It is good for forecasting in the 1st and 2nd quarters, and there is enough reason to forecast in the 4th quarter.
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References
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