Forecasting the number of maternal deaths from childbirth in Thailand

Abstract

Maternal death is an indicator of maternal well-being, access to health services, and the adequacy of health service facilities. Maternal mortality data indicates risk factors for pregnancy and birth and directly points to women's overall health and indirectly their socio-economic conditions. This research aims to forecast the number of maternal deaths from childbirth in Thailand in fiscal year 2024 using the Ministry of Public Health's statistical reports, standard reporting group, cause of illness, or death report on deaths according to 298 disease groups (hospital base) with data from fiscal years 2014 to 2023 spanning 10 years and containing 3 groups: 242: Other complications of pregnancy and birth; 243: Birth of a singleton pregnancy; and 244: Complications mainly seen in the postpartum period and other obstetric conditions. Using the Gray System Theory, the GM(1,1) model and the GM(1,1) expanded model with periodic correction model (EPC), the results showed that the GM(1,1) EPC model has the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in all disease groups. Predictive value of the number of maternal deaths in fiscal year 2024, disease group 242: other complications of pregnancy and birth, there were 29 people, a decrease from fiscal year 2023, 33.32 percent, and 243: births of singleton pregnancies, there were 27 people, a decrease from fiscal year 2023, 23.86 percent, while 244: complications that were mostly found during the afterbirth and other obstetric conditions that were not specified in detail, there were 46 people, an increase of 17.84 percent from fiscal year 2023.