Forecasting The Number of Chicken pox in Chiang Mai with Box-Jenkins Method

Abstract

Objective this reseach was objected to determine the optimal model for forecasting the
number of Chicken pox in Chiang Mai.
Methods Data to be used in this study was secondary data which monthly collected from the
Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Bangkok. since
May, 2009 to August, 2015 and analyzed with Box-Jenkins method. Criteria to be measured the
accuracy of forecasting was the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute percentage
error (MAPE) and the mean absolute error (MAE).
Results The result of study showed that the optimal model for forecasting the number of
Chicken pox in Chiang Mai was the ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,1,1)12.
Conclusions The Box-Jenkins model capably forecasted the number of Chicken pox in Chiang
Mai also assembly designed to protect and control the diseases in the future.