Model Forecasting of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever Diseases in Ofce of Diseases Prevention and Control 6 Khonkaen Province, 2012

Abstract

DengueinfectionremainsapublichealthprobleminThailand.Thepolicyofthepreventionandcontrol includesinresponsetothat,theepidemiologicalsurveillancedatashouldbefullyutilizedtospecifcallyprevent,control and forecast the outbreaks. The purposes of the research were to study the situation and distribution of
diseases providing baseline data for a reliable forecast of the number of cases. In a descriptive section Dengue infectiondataundersurveillanceofoffceproventionandcontroldisease6Khonkaenprovinceduringtheperiod 2003 - 2011 were reviewed and analyzed employing descriptive statistical analysis followed by forecast, by the Time series analysis : Triple exponential smoothing or Winter’s model (alpha = 1.0, gamma = 0, delta =0). The study indicated that in the frst fve years, the incidence rate of dengue infection had increased, especially in 2011, the incidence rate was 51.99 per 100,000 population (4,456 cases). In 2011, the death rate was 0.12 per 100,000 population (10 cases) and case fatality rate was 0.22 percent., The incidence rate of dengue infection in the 10-14 and 5-9 year age group were 248.12 and 171.35 per 100,000 population respectively in July The compared with 5 medians year, been retrospective (2006-10), there were spreading during month, July-September(July highest been 1,079 cases), by during 5 year frst, incident rate high trends and during 5 year the follows, spreading of the disease had the format modifes a little, spread follows the area of each a province, in the area of an offce provention and control disease 6 Khonkaen province. In round 9 year (2003-2011), during 4 year frst (2003-2005), every province had trends of incidence rate until year 2005 by in this year the Roi Et province there were most incidence rate (95.01 per 100,000 population), next been Khonkaen and Loei (83.25, 60.96 per 100,000 population), respectively. The part during 5 year the back (2007-2011). There was spreading of the disease tall most in year 2007 by in this year the Roi Et province, there were most incidence rate (316.25 per 100,000 population), next be Kalasin and Mahasarakham (292.87,157.98 per 100,000 population), respectively, Trend of spreading part had the change was lower 2 year tall already go up 2 year and spreading format of the disease hemorrhagic fever in zone 6 had the change during 5 year frst, by in year 2550 and 2553 year at had spreading topmost, by have per 100,000 population (155.85 and 89.62) respectively, the part year was case death more than standard a little (0.2%). Surveillance for serotype spreading of hemorrhagic fever in public health area that was responsible, between year 2006-2010 show that, year 2006-2009 show, hemorrhagic fever kind virus , Dengue-1 (60-70%) but year 2010 show a kind, Dengue-2 (66%), which been the change of the pathogen and cause that made a patient had to are in a severe condition and death, by the change of virus kind, will think had the change 3-4 every year and the death person who have a report in border area get detect a kind had of hemorrhagic fever virus already was a kind, Dengue-2, everyone. The forecasting disease hemorrhagic fever in offce prevention and control disease 6 Khonkaen province, in year 2012 suppose should had patient disease hemorrhagic fever report about 3,057 case, respectively, beneath way geography condition or environment or the activity and all policy, that don’t modify very extremely, by forecasting disease quantity manner can consider spreading will have of the disease in the future and value forecasting this lead becomes aim determination in each the area will should distinct and were appropriate more the aim originally at might under the belt in situation disease this comparison of each the area that had the difference, for apply in laying plans administrates to manage. This quantitative forecast for the
future should become very useful for the prevention and control of the diseases, when it is scaled down, to be more site-specifc. Model Forecasting disease hemorrhagic fever there was as follows 1.) beginning studied way epidemiology manner situation describes, for analyze size problem connection of disease occurrence and source policy from confscate each a province for referable both of data manner quantity database and quality manner that bring about to manner quality general connection of this disease 2.) Study the factor or that make thing was born the disease, be the data that study manner epidemiology analyses that emphasize pathogen education that causes disease place, the risk factor that relate. 3.) Technique meditation forecasts quantity manner with
the technique that was appropriate data element of this disease (trend, seasonal, cycle and irregular). 4.) Bring forecasting manner quantity uncertainties in advance come to consider spreading in advance by compare with   5 medians year are retrospective, fully present the data that receive TRUE report is late arrive at such midyear. 5.)The arrangement do the intelligence warns by presenting forecasting overall image the border in three frst months fully forecasting especial rate sick topmost province (Hot spot), for be born the awareness and on the alert in watching activity were careful the events, disease investigation, and fghting with mass all media, for the advantage in the prevention controls the disease next.