A Predictive model for the Risk of Oral Cancer

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กุลชญา ลอยหา
ภัทรวุฒิ วัฒนศัพท์

Abstract

This study is an analytical Hospital-based case-control study. Aimed of this study was to predict the equations used for risk factor of oral cancer in the Northeast. This study investigated oral cancers in the incidence cases that were diagnosed by physicians in outpatients of Otolaryngology Department. The patients were confirmed that they had the oral cancers by histological confirmed from the laboratory during 2010-2014. Case subjects, 104 were came from the 3 hospitals (Srinagarind Hospital-Khon Kaen University teaching hospital, Khon Kaen Regional Hospital, and  Sappasitthiprasong Hospital). The control group was patients who had ear, nose and throat diseases liked flu, snoring, allergy, and sudden hearing loss. These diseases were not related to oral cancer and human papillomavirus (HPV). According to the study, the results indicated that the variables were related to incidence of oral cancer and a prediction equation for oral cancer by a multiple logistic regression as follows: the logit (oral cancer) =2.47 (Cigarette smoking) + 3.81(Betel quid chewing).Moreover, results also showed that the prediction ability of this equation from the area under ROC curve; AUC is able to predict the occurrence of oral cancer up to 73.74% at the intersection point of 1 with the sensitivity of 87.50% and the specificity of 53.83%. When test was positive, accuracy of the prediction was 65.47%. In contrast, when test was negative, accuracy of the prediction was 81.16%. Precision of the prediction was 70.67%. Thus, equations and results of test, the study found that in the cigarette smoking and betel quid chewing were found the most important factors than all the factors that are associated with oral cancer. This study can be applied in the assessment of the occurrence for oral cancer more precisely. The study also found guidelines to develop the prevention and the treatment of the oral cancer in the future to be more effectiveness.

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1.
ลอยหาก, วัฒนศัพท์ภ. A Predictive model for the Risk of Oral Cancer. jdpc7kk [Internet]. 2018Nov.15 [cited 2020Jun.7];25(1):35-4. Available from: https://he01.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/jdpc7kk/article/view/155306
Section
Research Article

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