Analysis of factors associated with the mortality in dengue fever patients in Thailand (2022-2024)

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the factors associated with the mortality of dengue fever patients from January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023, and to forecast the outbreak of dengue fever from July 1 to December 31, 2023, using secondary data from the epidemiological surveillance report (R506). The study selected a sample group of 241,909 cases using purposive sampling. The statistical methods employed in this research include descriptive statistics, multiple logistic regression, and time series analysis to forecast the number of dengue fever cases. The study found that there were 243,066 reported cases of dengue fever, with 264 deaths. The factors associated with dengue-related mortality include a delay of more than 4 days from the onset of symptoms to diagnosis, age over 15 years, inpatient care, and residence in the northern, and northeastern regions, and Bangkok. Nearly all the deceased patients were diagnosed with Dengue shock syndrome. The forecasting results between 1 July to 31 December 2023, predict an average of 11,129 monthly cases, with the highest number expected in July. This study is valuable for emphasizing the need for public health organizations to monitor high-risk groups for dengue fever related deaths and plan resource allocation for future patient care. Future research should collect data on the factors related to strain variation and socio-economic factors.