Risk factors of dengue fever affecting the determination of risk areas at the sub-district level of the Health

Abstract

This Retrospective Study involved descriptive and analytical assessments of dengue risk factors affecting the determination of epidemic risk areas at the sub-district level. The study employed binary logistic regression analysis at the significance level of 0.05 (p-value < 0.05). Data from the epidemiological surveillance report (R.506) of dengue fever from provinces in the 2nd Health Region between 2013 and 2017 were assessed. Dengue risk factors affecting the determination of sub-district risk areas were statistically significant at the level of 0.05. Two factors were found, were:  1) if the mean number of patients who contracted the dengue fever in each event were 2 or more, the chance of dengue outbreaks was 2.114 times higher than normal circumstances (95% CI = 1.142-3.912), 2) the number of years (in the past five years) that experienced disease occurrence rate higher than the median value. This resulted in a 2.457 times more likely chance to experience the dengue fever outbreak (95% CI = 1.551-3.893). Therefore, if the area or sub-district was found to have patients, it was important to address the discovery seriously. Consequently, transmissions of the disease can be effectively controlled and number of sicked patients reduced. If the number of patients who contracted Dengue fever was kept lower than the median value. Therefore, the district health office should focus on data analysis, and assessing disease risk areas at the sub-district level. This will help to identify priority areas that would receive assistance first, in case of an outbreak.