The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Dengue Transmission in Nakhon Sawan Province : Segmented Regression Analysis
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Abstract
This is a segmented regression analysis study to evaluate The impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on dengue transmission of age 5-19 years group and age 20-59 years group in Nakhon Sawan Province. The monthly dengue rate per 100,000 population was Collected for 84 points during April 2015 and March 2022. It is secondary data from the Nakhon Sawan Provincial Public Health Office. We use segmented regression analysis to The monthly dengue rate per 100,000 population and its 95% confidence interval (CI). The results of the study found that the average dengue rate per 100,000 population of school age groups and teenagers (aged 5-19 years) Before the closure of educational institutions according form the COVID-19 lockdown measures, was 56.62 people (95% CI: 24.69 to 88.54 people per 100,000 population). After the closure of educational institutions according form COVID-19 lockdown measures, the immediate absolute reduction of dengue rate per 100,000 population was significant with 4,121.54 people per 100,000 population (95% CI: 0.21 to 42.86 people per 100,000 population). There were no significance trend of the dengue fever rate before and after the closure of educational institutions according form COVID-19 lockdown. As the results of the study in adults (aged 20-59 years), it is no significance of the change and trend of the dengue rate before and after of COVID-19 lockdown. The results of the study are therefore a proposal to consider applying measures to close educational institutions to control the spread of dengue fever, such as having students in classrooms with dengue fever patients leave school or study online for twice the duration of the isolation period. with eliminating mosquitoes and larvae, etc.
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