Precision and Effectiveness of Demand Forecasting for Drug Inventory Management.
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Abstract
Introduction:This research aimed to evaluate the precision and the effectiveness of demand forecasting. Methods: Drug utilization data of Ayutthaya Hospital were retrospectively retrieved 3 fiscal years (2011-2013). Only 135 items of drug group A which being the most valuable drug items, was analyzed and forecasted. The CB Predictor program was used to forecast each drug item’s demand in fiscal year 2014. Then the forecasted demand quantity and pattern were compared with actual drug utilization in the same year. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) was presented as the forecasting error. The statistics used in data analysis were descriptive statistics and inferential statistics such as Wilcoxon Signed-rank Test.Results: Of 135 drug items, 81 items (60.00%) was forecasted precisely or did not differ from actual drug utilization. The most demand patterns found in the precisely forcasted drugs was Horizontal (39 items, 48.1%), which Single Moving Average technique should be used for forecasting. The most precise forecasting of drug types was Gastro-intestinal system. The second most precise forecasting of drug types was Central nervous system. Conclusion: The precision of demand forecasting was moderate.The findings from this research are beneficial for a pharmacist or a person who is responsible for drug inventory management. The demand patterns and forecasting techniques can be applied to further increase efficiency of hospital drug inventory management.
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