Predictive Analysis of Clinical Pharmacist Talent Demand in Yunnan: A Grey GM(1,1) Model Approach with Insights from Kunming Medical University
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31584/psumj.2024266643Keywords:
clinical pharmacist demand forecasting, Grey GM(1,1) Model, higher medical education, talent cultivation strategies, Yunnan provinceAbstract
Objective: Leveraging the Grey GM(1,1) model, we aimed to forecast the clinical pharmacist demand in Yunnan province. This was done using Kunming Medical University as a case study to inform effective talent cultivation strategies.
Material and Methods: Historical demographic and educational data from Yunnan informed our Grey GM(1,1) model to predict future demands for clinical pharmacists accurately.
Results: The population of Yunnan peaked at 46.53 million in 2014, experienced a slight decline in 2015, and then increased to 46.93 million in 2022. Concurrently, enrollment plans for clinical pharmacists at higher medical colleges are projected to grow, with an anticipated intake of 114 students in 2023. Despite this growth, and considering Yunnan’s aging demographic, there is an emerging demand for 3,000 clinical pharmacists by 2027, with a forecasted shortfall of 1,250 personnel.
Conclusion: To address this significant gap, it is crucial to refine the clinical pharmacy curriculum at Kunming Medical University, by incorporating more hands-on experiences and strengthening collaborations with clinical medical institutions to enhance practical training opportunities for students.
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