Forecasting the number of older adults’ outpatients receiving herbal medicine in Ubon Ratchathani Province
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Abstract
This study aims to forecast the number of elderly outpatients receiving herbal medicine in Ubon Ratchathani province for the fiscal year 2024. Data gathered from the Ministry of Public Health's statistical report on the topic of dispensing herbal medicines to outpatients by province from fiscal year 2018 to 2023 (processed on December 18, 2023) from the Health Data Center website of the Ministry of Public Health. Grey systems theory and polynomial regressions were employed in time series forecasting. Model selection was based on the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to ensure forecasting accuracy. The results showed that the GM (1,1) Error Periodic Correction model achieved the lowest MAPE value (2.36 percent) for the fiscal year 2018 to 2023. This model was selected to predict the number of elderly outpatients receiving herbal medicine in fiscal year 2024 at 149,429 cases, a 0.28 percent increase from fiscal year 2023.
This study contributes to healthcare planning by facilitating the provision of herbal medicine for outpatient needs among the aging population, thereby aiding in policy formulation and resource allocation.
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