Trends of hot extremes in Thailand during 1970-2024 and increased population exposure 10.55131/jphd/2026/240214
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Abstract
Trends in three nonoverlapping types of hot extremes (independent hot day [IHD], independent hot night [IHN], and compound hot event [CHE]) during the hottest month in Thailand were analyzed for the period 1970-2024. Analysis shows that Thailand experienced more frequent, longer duration, and stronger intensity of IHN and CHE. Their frequency, intensity and duration tended to accelerate in recent years, consistent with a step-up in the warming rate of global surface temperature. Another feature associated with the nighttime-accentuated events is that hot-extreme types in Thailand as a whole shifted from a gradual decline in IHD to the dominance of increasing IHN and CHE. Estimation of population exposure to hot extremes demonstrates that from 2002 to 2024, total population exposure to IHN and CHE at the selected 62 districts where the weather stations are located increased by more than 145% relative to the 2002-2006 period. The change in exposure to hot extremes was mainly caused by climatic effects (99.8%-182%), highlighting that increased hot extremes by themselves substantially escalate population exposure in the selected districts. Continuous exposure to sustained period of hot extremes may bear larger health risk in the coming years, as Thailand's transition to an ageing society is accelerating. However, additional studies based on available high‐resolution gridded population and climate projections in combination with epidemiological, demographic and socioeconomic data are needed. Their results will provide a full picture of changes in different types of hot extremes and how the whole Thai population will be exposed to them in the future
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