Situations and factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection during 2022-2024 and forecasts of the number of patients undergoing SARS-CoV-2 test at Rajpracha Samasai Institute during 2024-2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14456/dcj.2025.7Keywords:
COVID-19, infection, risk factors, forecastingAbstract
Although the Thai Government has officially declared the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, Rajpracha Samasai Institute still detects cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This study aimed to (1) examine the number of individuals undertaking SARS-CoV-2 testing and individuals infected with COVID-19 at Rajpracha Samasai Institute from October 1, 2022, to May 31, 2024, (2) identify factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 detection, and (3) forecast the number of individuals seeking SARS-CoV-2 testing from June 1, 2024 to January 31, 2025. This study utilized a time-series cross-sectional dataset and analyzed data from 1,801 individuals using descriptive statistics. Binary logistic regression was applied to assess infection-related factors. Forecasting models including seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), seasonal exponential smoothing (SES), and a 3-month moving average (3-MA) were conducted. The results showed that 28.2% of individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (42.8%, 24.9%, and 23.6% in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively). Being female, aged 18 years or older, having cough, and experiencing fever were significantly associated with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. Forecasting results indicated that the estimated number of individuals seeking testing would be approximately 90 and 70 per month based on the SES and 3-MA models, respectively. The SARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,0)12 model predicted monthly variations ranging from 37 to 123 cases. Nonetheless, some limitations remained such as the absence of risk information from communities or immunity level, and the relatively short timeframe of the dataset used for forecasting. However, the findings can be useful for appropriate resource allocation and planning for SARS-CoV-2 testing services at Rajpracha Samasai Institute in the future.
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