Grey System Model for forecasting dengue outbreak: case study of Bangkok metropolis

Abstract

The research aimed to 1) study the Grey system model for forecasting the dengue outbreak, 2) report on the accuracy of forecasting the dengue outbreak during 2018-2022, 3) use the information for decision-making with respect to planning, management and problem solving associated with dengue outbreaks. The sample group used in this study was the number of dengue cases in the areas under Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA). Research tool was the Grey Theory, which was a suitable forecasting technique for the formatted data by the system GM (1, 1). Findings from this study indicated that: 1) The Grey system theory by the GM (1, 1) was suitable for forecasting the number of dengue infected people in Bangkok area; 2) The results of forecasting the number of patients during dengue outbreaks using the Grey Theory, a method in the GM (1, 1), were able to forecast the number of dengue cases with an accuracy of 98.62 percent, compared with the number of patients reported in 2020 by the BMA Health Department; and 3) The model accuracy inspection was the measurement of the error of actual value and the forecast value by using the co-efficient value or the number data, assuming the actual value was close to the forecast value or with minimal errors, which was the appropriate value for forecasting an accurate result. Regarding accuracy validation of the model, overall, the GM (1, 1) method was found to be accurate because this method achieved a MAPE statistical value of 6.10 percent.