Gains in life expectancy due to eliminating major causes of death in Thai older persons

Abstract

Background: The age structure of the population of Thailand has been rapidly changing. The proportion of older persons aged 60 years and over is significantly increasing as a result of a range of declining mortality and, most importantly, decrease in fertility. Burden of disease measured by non-communicable diseases in older persons is at the most elevated key factor when compared with other population groups. This study estimated the gains of life expectancy from elimination of three major causes of death including cerebrovascular disease, heart disease and cancer in older Thai people by gender.

Methods:  Based on data on causes of death in 2007 from the Bureau of Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand, the multiple decrement and cause eliminated life tables were carried out for life expectancy estimates. By eliminating certain causes of death, a more accurate life expectancy, that is capable of predicting gender difference in life expectancy at age 60, is obtained.

Results: This study showed that the net gain in life expectancy at age 60 would be 1.2, 1.5 and 4.8 years from heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and cancer, respectively. Men are expected to gain longer life expectancy than women subsequent to elimination of cerebrovascular disease. Women are expected to gain longer life expectancy as a result of elimination of cancer.

Conclusion: This study outlined how each of three diseases could affect the life expectancy of Thai older persons. Gains in life expectancy depend on particular causes of death and sex. Therefore, the findings provide potentially relevant evidence for the Thai government to provide improvement of public health policies for older persons to reduce their loss of life, particularly as caused by cerebrovascular disease and cancer.