Dengue hemorrhagic fever forecasted by 5 dimension data user in 9th Regional Health Area

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the risk and prevalence of dengue hemorrhagic fever for 2015 in 9th Regional Health area, including Nakhon Ratchasima, Burirum, Surin and Chaiyaphum Provinces. Data of determinants, behavioral risk, program response, morbidity/mortality and abnormal event that stated in epidemiological studies, surveillance and outbreak investigation reports and literatures were collected reviewed and analyzed. The statistical analysis was performed to determine association between incidence and rainfall, larva index, by performing simple linear regression. The incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever was forecasted by using Time Series Model (Holt-Winters multiplicative method). The study found that larva index was associated with dengue hemorrhagic fever. The results showed that association between rate of patients and annual rainfall and temperature were weak. The Time Series Model was fitted using monthly data from 2010-2014 and it was estimated that there will be a total of 4,289 dengue cases in 2015. The majority of people lack of awareness and participation in disease control. In conclusion, dengue hemorrhagic fever is remaining and will be a major public health problem in the 9th Regional Health area. The forecast number of cases in 2015 will be highest than 2014. Therefore, the national and local authority for disease control and relevant agencies should manage to disseminate the knowledge and good practices in the prevention and control of dengue hemorrhagic fever.